Tuesday, 8 March 2016

March 8, 2016: Full marks on adhering to fiscal deficit road map

March 8, 2016: Full marks on adhering to fiscal deficit road map

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 8, 2016)

Full marks on adhering to fiscal deficit road map:

Fiscal Deficit for 2016-17
3.5% of GDP

Goal of the Government
Accelerating growth under macroeconomic stability

Questions arise on
·         the credibility of commitment
·         adherence to fixed road map

On credibility front
·         underestimation of expenditure*
·         overestimation of revenue*

Effects of sustained High Fiscal Deficit
·         rise in Debt-GDP ratio
·         increase in interest payments as a proportion of revenues, leaving less for productive expenditure


Impact of High Fiscal Deficit
·         Mandated target of Fiscal Deficit under FRBM Act 2003, is 3% of GDP for the Central Govt.
·         The states taken together will also take 3% of GDP
·         Combined Fiscal Deficit of the Centre and the States will be 6%
·         Both private business and government invest more than they save
·         They draw on the surplus of the household sector
·         Household sector savings in financial assets are also called transferable savings
·         Household savings in financial assets have come down to almost 7.3% leaving very little for sectors other than government to draw on the surplus of the household sector
·         Thus, there is considerable merit in favour of moving towards the target of 3% of GDP


*Fiscal Deficit: Expenditure and Revenue

Total expenditure’s projected increase
10.8%

Burden of the Seventh Pay Commission
·         Not clear to what extent has been taken into account
·         It appears a significant part has been left

So total expenditure will rise
Resulting into underestimation of the expenditure



Gross Tax Revenue Projected to grow
By 11.7%

Receipts from Disinvestment estimated for 2016-17
Rs. 56,500 crore (actual collection of Rs. 25,300 crore in 2015-16)
Projected receipt from Spectrum auction in 2016-17
Rs. 99,000 crore (way above what was obtained in 2015-16)

Thus overestimation of revenues



Source: Full Marks on fiscal deficit by C. Rangarajan, March 8, 2016, The Hindu

March 7, 2016: Centre’s Fiscal Consolidation Road map – a bumpy ride

March 7, 2016: Centre’s Fiscal Consolidation Road map – a bumpy ride

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 7, 2016)

Centre’s Fiscal Consolidation Road map – a bumpy ride:

Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management Act, 2003 (FRBM Act)


Documents to be tabled annually in the Parliament with regard to Fiscal Policy
·         Medium-term Fiscal Policy Statement
·          Fiscal Policy Strategy Statement
·          Macro-economic Framework Statement

Reset of Fiscal Deficit target in 2008-09
Following global financial crisis
Why review of FRBM Act needed?
Has the law allowed the government the elbow room needed to use all the fiscal tools at its command to ensure that the growth momentum is maintained, without either significantly fuelling inflation or curtailing spending on vital and socio-economically relevant development programmes? If it has not, this may be the time to review the Act, and if necessary, amend it significantly

Arun Jaitley’s Budget proposal to have a committee review the implementation of FRBM Act


Possibility of adopting a target range than a specific number


Benefit of target range
It would give the necessary policy space to deal with dynamic and volatile situations such as the one India faces – global economic and financial market uncertainty, a slowdown in China and tepid private investment demand domestically


Fiscal Deficit Road map: depicting elusive target of 3% of GDP



Source: Review the fiscal consolidation path, March 7, 2016, The Hindu

&
Elusive 3% Fiscal Deficit Target, January 15, 2016, Business Standard
 http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/elusive-3-fiscal-deficit-target-116011500032_1.html

Sunday, 6 March 2016

March 6, 2016: Money Bill on Aadhaar, Customary Reminder on Constitution 108th Amendment Bill as Women's Day is approaching

March 6, 2016: Money Bill on Aadhaar,  Customary Reminder on Constitution 108th Amendment Bill as Women's Day is approaching

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 6, 2016)

Money Bill on Aadhaar:
Finance Minister introduced the Aadhaar (Targeted Delivery of Financial and Other Subsidies, Benefits and Services) Bill, 2016 in the Lok Sabha, which seeks to make the use of Aadhaar mandatory for availing government subsidies but at the same time tries to address concerns regarding privacy and protection of personal information.
The bill has been tabled as a money bill in Lok Sabha. The bill will provide statutory backing to Aadhaar. 
Opposition’s misgivings:

The Opposition is accusing the government of trying to avoid scrutiny over the Aadhaar Bill by categorizing it as a Money Bill.

[---- clause 7 of the Bill: Aadhaar to distribute subsidy
---clause 57 of the Bill: This identification number for any other function
--- Thus not meeting the criteria of a money bill ]

What are Money Bills?

Bills that contain provisions related to taxation, borrowing of money by the government, expenditure from or receipt to the Consolidated Fund of India.
Article 110 of the Indian Constitution defines the Money Bill.
[What is a Money Bill?:
--- Under Article 110 (1) of the Constitution, a Bill is deemed to be a Money Bill if it contains provisions dealing with six specific matters [Article 110 (1)(a) to (1)(f)] broadly related to imposing, abolishing or regulating a tax; regulating government borrowings; the Consolidated and Contingency Funds of India; and “any matter incidental to any of the matters specified in (the previous six) sub-clauses… [Article 110(1)(g)]”. The expression “incidental to” makes the definition of a Money Bill comprehensive.
--- If any question arises whether a Bill is a Money Bill or not, Article 110(3) says, “the decision of the Speaker of the House of the People thereon shall be final”.]

Features of a Money Bill:
--- Money bills can be introduced only in the Lok Sabha
--- The Rajya Sabha cannot make amendments to a money bill passed by the Lok Sabha and can only make recommendations
---  The Rajya Sabha also has to return money bills to the Lok Sabha within 14 days from the date of their receipt, thus ensuring a time-bound process
--- Such bills also cannot be referred to a joint committee of Parliament

Women’s Reservation Bill/Constitution 108th Amendment Bill:

--- to reserve one third of the seats in State legislatures and Parliament for women
--- Women’s day is falling on March 8
--- Hopefully someday this Bill will be passed

Friday, 4 March 2016

March 4, 2016: Revaluation Reserve, Foreign Currency Translation Reserve and Deferred Tax Assets in Tier-I

March 4, 2016: RBI eases tier-1 capital regulations and hence allows banks to expand capital base to meet Basel III norms

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 4, 2016)

Revaluation Reserve, Foreign Currency Translation Reserve & Deferred Tax Assets:

The RBI has come out with three amendments to include in Tier I, the revaluation reserve (at 55% discount), foreign currency translation reserve (at 25% discount) and Deferred Tax Assets (capped at 10%).

Revaluation Reserve is the amount added to the original acquired value of the asset in order to show its true value. Most of the banks, especially public sector ones are sitting on huge properties across the country bought at ridiculously low prices as compared to current land and real estate prices. Revaluation Reserve was allowed as a Tier-II capital by the central banker earlier. This has now been shifted to Tier-I in compliance with Basel-III guidelines.

(i.e. Revaluation reserves arise from the revaluation of assets that are undervalued on the bank’s books, typically bank premises.)

As for foreign currency translation reserve (FCTR), which allows 25% of the reserve to be included in the Tier-I calculation is formed due to translation differences which arise as a result of translating the financial statement items from the functional currency into the presentational currency using the exchange rate at the balance sheet date, which differs from the rate in effect at the last measurement date of the respective item. Banks with foreign operations and exposures generally create this reserve.

(i.e.  the foreign currency translation reserves arising due to the translation of financial statements of a bank’s foreign operations to the reporting currency would also be considered as Tier-I capital.)

The third amendment is on deferred tax assets (DTA) which will be capped at 10% of the bank’s Tier I capital. DTAs arise due to timing difference (and not due to losses) which are presently deducted from Tier I capital at 60% and AT 1 (additional tier 1) capital at 40%. 

[The Amendment one, two and three in nutshell:

--- Banks can now apply gains from revaluation of property to core capital requirements

--- The RBI also said conversions of foreign currency in financial statements can now more easily be considered common equity capital, while also easing rules on counting deferred tax assets.]

Tier-I capital and Tier-II capital:
--- Tier 1 capital is the core capital and is used to absorb losses.
--- Tier II, on the other hand, is supplementary capital.
--- Thus, it is Tier I capital that is a true measure of a bank’s financial health.”

[ Note: After amendments RBI has allowed Revaluation Reserves in Tier I capital:
--- In Tier I capital banks include: share capital, share premium and other reserves (excluding revaluation reserves).
--- In the case of Tier II capital, provisions or loan-loss reserves, which are freely available to meet losses, are included. Also, revaluation reserves at 55 per cent discount are included for Tier II capital calculation.
--- Now, the RBI has allowed revaluation reserves (at 55 per cent discount) to be included in Tier I (CET 1 — common equity) capital, instead of Tier II. ]

Basel  III:

Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures, developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk of the banking sector.

The Basel III reform measures aim to:--- Improve the banking sector's ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress--- Improve risk management and governance--- Strengthen banks' transparency and disclosures.

References:

Thursday, 3 March 2016

March 3, 2016: Aadhaar Bill introduced as a Money Bill in Lok Sabha, 5/20 rule in aviation policy

March 3, 2016: Aadhaar Bill introduced  as a Money Bill in Lok Sabha, 5/20 rule in aviation policy

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 3, 2016)
Govt tables bill in Lok Sabha to give statutory status to Aadhaar:
Finance Minister introduced the Aadhaar (Targeted Delivery of Financial and Other Subsidies, Benefits and Services) Bill, 2016 in the Lok Sabha, which seeks to make the use of Aadhaar mandatory for availing government subsidies but at the same time tries to address concerns regarding privacy and protection of personal information.
The bill has been tabled as a money bill in Lok Sabha. The bill will provide statutory backing to Aadhaar. 
Features of a Money Bill:
--- Money bills can be introduced only in the Lok Sabha
--- The Rajya Sabha cannot make amendments to a money bill passed by the Lok Sabha and can only make recommendations
---  The Rajya Sabha also has to return money bills to the Lok Sabha within 14 days from the date of their receipt, thus ensuring a time-bound process
--- Such bills also cannot be referred to a joint committee of Parliament
What is a Money Bill?:
--- Under Article 110 (1) of the Constitution, a Bill is deemed to be a Money Bill if it contains provisions dealing with six specific matters [Article 110 (1)(a) to (1)(f)] broadly related to imposing, abolishing or regulating a tax; regulating government borrowings; the Consolidated and Contingency Funds of India; and “any matter incidental to any of the matters specified in (the previous six) sub-clauses… [Article 110(1)(g)]”. The expression “incidental to” makes the definition of a Money Bill comprehensive.
--- If any question arises whether a Bill is a Money Bill or not, Article 110(3) says, “the decision of the Speaker of the House of the People thereon shall be final”.

5/20 Rule and New Aviation Policy:
New Aviation Policy will decide the fate of 5/20 rule.
What is 5/20 rule?:
--- The rule says an airline needs to fly five years in the domestic market and have a fleet of 20 aircraft before it can fly abroad.
Who want 5/20 rule to stay:
--- Incumbent airlines IndiGo, SpiceJet, Jet Airways and GoAir
Who want 5/20 rule to go:
--- The two new Tata airlines Vistara and AirAsia India.
Union Cabinet approved the 5/20 rule in December 2004

Deciphering Budget speech:

M. Govinda Rao writes in his article titled ‘Wait for the good days got longer’ in the Hindu dated March 3, 2016: “Although the fiscal deficit is proposed to be capped at 3.5 per cent, there is additional borrowing by the special purpose vehicles for infrastructure and that includes Rs. 31,300 crore to be mobilized by National Highways Authority of India, Power Finance Corporation, Rural Electrification Corporation, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency and National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development.”

The Budget speech reads:

To augment infrastructure spending further, Government will permit mobilization of additional finances to the extent of Rs. 31,300 crore by NHAI, PFC, REC, IREDA, NABARD and Inland Water Authority through raising of Bonds during 2016-17.”

What is Public Sector Borrowing Requirement?:

--- Amount a government needs to borrow to cover its expenditure
--- A government principally raises its money by taxes and excise duties
--- If it has to spend more than the amount covered by these sources, it must raise the rest by borrowing
--- To do this, it issues short-term and long-term stocks and bonds, on which it pays interest
--- These loans form part of the national debt.

Wednesday, 2 March 2016

March 2, 2016: RBI eases tier-1 capital regulations and hence allows banks to expand capital base to meet Basel III norms

March 2, 2016: RBI eases tier-1 capital regulations and hence allows banks to expand capital base to meet Basel III norms

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 2, 2016)

RBI lends a helping hand to banks with low capital/ RBI allows banks to expand capital base to meet Basel III norms/ RBI eases tier-1 capital regulations for banks
While calculating Tier I capital, banks include share capital, share premium and other reserves (excluding revaluation reserves). In the case of Tier II capital, provisions or loan-loss reserves, which are freely available to meet losses, are included.
Also, revaluation reserves at 55 per cent discount are included for Tier II capital calculation.
Revaluation reserves arise from the revaluation of assets that are undervalued on the bank’s books, typically bank premises.
Now, the RBI has allowed revaluation reserves (at 55 per cent discount) to be included in Tier I (CET 1 — common equity) capital, instead of Tier II. How does this re-jig of including revaluations reserves from Tier II to Tier I matter to banks?
“Tier 1 capital is the core capital and is used to absorb losses. Tier II, on the other hand, is supplementary capital. Thus, it is Tier I capital that is a true measure of a bank’s financial health.
“At a time when public sector banks (PSBs) have been struggling with a low capital base, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed banks to beef up its capital adequacy by including certain items such as property value, foreign exchange for calculation of its Tier-I capital.”
“Current norms under Basel III require banks to maintain a minimum capital adequacy of 9% and a tier-I ratio of 7%. Capital adequacy is a measure of a bank’s financial strength, expressed as a ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets.”
http://www.livemint.com/Money/3rydoArRpjsSFxQAe9y6sK/Banking-stocks-surge-after-RBI-eases-capital-regulations.html

Tuesday, 1 March 2016

March 1, 2016: Budget 2016-17 through discernible eyes

March 1, 2016: Budget 2016-17 through discernible eyes

General Studies: Daily Capsule

Curtain Raiser –News Update (March 1, 2016)

Understanding Budget 2016-17 from the eyes of experts:

“Fiscal deficit is essentially government expenditure minus its tax revenue. So, bringing it down means a fall in government expenditure and/or rise in tax revenue as a proportion of GDP.
“For 2016-17, the Finance Minister has promised to bring this ratio down to 3.5 per cent primarily through a 20 percent increase in indirect taxes and as much as 39 per cent in excise duties, even as the corporate taxes go down.

“A rise in indirect taxes as opposed to direct taxes is a clear case of regressive taxation because both the poor and the rich pay the same tax per unit of purchase of an item.”[1]

{Note: For the sake of clarity and completeness I am elaborating Taxes mentioned above.

Types of Taxes:

Taxes are the basic source of revenue to the Government using which it provides various kinds of services to the tax payers. There are mainly two types of Taxes, direct tax and indirect tax which are governed by two different boards, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) and Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC).

Direct Taxes

Direct taxes are the personal liability of tax payer. These are collected directly from the tax payers and they have to be paid by the persons on whom it is imposed. Important direct taxes are listed below:

---Income Tax
---Wealth Tax
---Property Tax/Capital Gains Tax
---Gift Tax/Inheritance Tax
---Corporate Tax

Indirect Tax

Impact and incidence of indirect Taxes fall on different persons as opposed to direct taxes where impact and incidence is on the same person. These taxes are recovered from different groups of people but the liability remains with the person who collects it. Tax payer recovers the indirect taxes paid from their consumers and clients and finally pays it to government.

For example, when we purchase any product we pay VAT, when we eat in restaurants we pay service tax which are ultimately deposited in government’s kitty by the service providers. Brief about various types of indirect taxes is given below:

Service Tax

Service providers in India are subject to service tax, which is charged on the aggregate amount received by the service provider. Services like leasing, internet/voice, transport, etc are subject to service tax.
 
Custom Duty

Custom duties are indirect taxes which are levied on goods imported to/exported from India. There are different rules for different types of goods and sectors. Government keeps on changing these rates so as to promote import/export of specific goods.
 
Excise Duty

Excise duties are indirect taxes which are levied on goods manufactured in India for domestic consumption. Like custom duty, there are a number of rules which keep on changing as per government discretion.

Sales Tax
 and VAT

Sales tax is levied by the government on sale and purchase of products in Indian market. As customers, whatever you buy from the market, you pay sales tax on it. Now, sales tax is supplemented with new Value Added Tax so as to make it uniform across country.

Security Transaction Tax (STT)

STT is levied on transactions (sale/purchase) done through the stock exchanges. STT is applicable on purchase or sale of various financial products like stocks, derivatives, mutual funds etc.”[2] 
 }

 

The Budget framed against Economic Background:

Two strands dominate this year’s budget: First, a prominent tilt towards the rural and agricultural segment through an increase in allocation, and a host of new and strengthened old schemes. Second is the adherence to the fiscal consolidation path, which required a reduction in fiscal deficit to 3.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) against 3.9% of the GDP in the current year. Between responding to rural distress and financial market concerns, the casualty seems to be growth.”[3]

A social economy budget

“The most important initiative that will radically change India’s political economy is the allocation of nearly Rs.3 trillion to gram panchayats.
There are 250,000 panchayats in the country that will now get almost Rs.1 crore every year. This is by far the most important measure for the democratization of public spending in India. Over the next five years, if the state governments understand the value of this move and supplement it, the entire public expenditure policy of the country will undergo a change for the better.
This direct statutory allocation from the centre to the gram panchayats, based on the recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission, strengthens the third tier of governance by giving it financial empowerment and autonomy. The statutory funding of gram panchayats will give the village democracy—galvanized by the passage of the 73rd constitutional amendment in 1993—a decisive transformative push.
Challenges from Macroeconomic perspective
From a macroeconomic perspective, Jaitley faced three key challenges: first, under-consumption in the rural sector; second, under-investment in the urban corporate sector, especially in a downbeat global economy; and third, leverage in the banking system, which is threatening to convert real side sluggishness into a banking and financial sector crisis.
While the issue of rural under-consumption has been adequately addressed directly, it is hoped that the under-investment crisis will be addressed indirectly through rural stimulation, which is contestable. By trying to build a consumerist rural economy without a corresponding investing “urban” sector is flawed. Rural demand may drive overall aggregate demand, but its structure and composition need not match the investment needs of the economy and that can derail this budget very easily.
The third challenge has been left unaddressed. The tough challenge of preventing macroeconomic sluggishness from becoming a banking sector crisis and from there on to a financial sector crisis and then a full blown macroeconomic crisis remains unaddressed.
The lack of additional capital infusions/road map on banking sector non-performing assets (NPAs) is a big disappointment. The finance minister has maintained status quo on the recapitalization limit for public sector banks atRs.25,000 crore, even while stating that the government remains committed towards easing off the stress in the banking system.”[4]
 References:

[1] Why the Budget numbers don’t add up by Rohit, March 1, 2016, The Hindu

[2] 10 taxes you should know about, April 11, 2014, Business Standard


[3]    Budget 2016-17: Growth takes a backseat                         http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/3zGnz1IZoDIN6NX2tgotxI/Budget-201617-Growth-takes-a-backseat.html

[4] A social economy budget                        http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/vtNjX7sy31hqGBGX2hNmMK/A-social-economy-budget.html